PMI Scheduling Professional (PMI-SP) — Lesson 3: Risk Analysis, Progress, Performance, Forecasting, and Change Control

Learning Objectives

• Apply stakeholder, risk, quality, governance, and adaptive decisions to schedule risk, progress, and performance.
• Apply forecasting and change control through a reviewable project or exam-preparation artifact.
• Recognize and correct the condition where delivery appears on track while stakeholder, risk, quality, ethical, or governance issues remain hidden.

Detailed Topics

• schedule risk: apply the concept to the course scenario, record the relevant decision or artifact, and explain the professional consequence.
• progress: apply the concept to the course scenario, record the relevant decision or artifact, and explain the professional consequence.
• performance: apply the concept to the course scenario, record the relevant decision or artifact, and explain the professional consequence.
• forecasting: apply the concept to the course scenario, record the relevant decision or artifact, and explain the professional consequence.
• change control: apply the concept to the course scenario, record the relevant decision or artifact, and explain the professional consequence.

Instructor Demonstration

The instructor demonstrates risk analysis, progress, performance, forecasting, and change control by tracing the decision logic, project artifacts, stakeholder inputs, calculations, and evidence. The walkthrough tests how delivery appears on track while stakeholder, risk, quality, ethical, or governance issues remain hidden and shows how to correct the issue without creating downstream inconsistency.

Hands-On Exercise

Introduce a realistic change or exception and assess the response for Risk Analysis, Progress, Performance, Forecasting, and Change Control and add the verified result to the schedule management plan, logic network, baseline model, risk analysis, update report, forecast, and PMI-SP readiness portfolio.

1. Confirm the objective, stakeholders, assumptions, constraints, inputs, and acceptance criteria.
2. Complete the workflow while recording decisions, calculations, artifacts, and supporting evidence.
3. Test the expected path and one course-specific change, risk, or exception.
4. Review the result, correct gaps, and document ownership and follow-up actions.

Scenario Analysis

• Identify which assumption or stakeholder need most strongly influences schedule risk.
• Compare two approaches for forecasting and explain the value, risk, governance, and delivery trade-offs.
• Determine what evidence must be retained in the schedule management plan, logic network, baseline model, risk analysis, update report, forecast, and PMI-SP readiness portfolio before professional acceptance.

Troubleshooting Guidance

Start with the first mismatch between the intended outcome and the available evidence. Check stakeholder response, risk, quality, governance, ethics, and delivery evidence separately, then trace dependencies, decisions, calculations, and stakeholder feedback. Treat the assumption that delivery appears on track while stakeholder, risk, quality, ethical, or governance issues remain hidden as a hypothesis until review or retesting confirms the cause.

Validation Checklist

• The required stakeholder response, risk, quality, governance, ethics, and delivery evidence were checked and recorded.
• The normal case and a course-specific exception were evaluated.
• The schedule management plan, logic network, baseline model, risk analysis, update report, forecast, and PMI-SP readiness portfolio connects each conclusion to an artifact, calculation, decision, or other objective evidence.
• Corrections, ownership, review notes, lessons, and follow-up actions are complete.

Lesson Outcome

Learners can apply Risk Analysis, Progress, Performance, Forecasting, and Change Control, explain the resulting project or professional decision, and support the outcome with a reviewable schedule management plan, logic network, baseline model, risk analysis, update report, forecast, and PMI-SP readiness portfolio.